Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,596$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,711.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(52,711.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,581$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(682 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,373.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,604$ on 2020-05-09

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $223,578$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(217,401.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,478$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,425.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,425.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,148$ on 2020-05-09

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $218,268$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,906.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(213,906.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,395$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,715.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,715.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $84,842$ on 2020-05-09

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $216,525$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,991.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(226,991.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,662$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,868.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,868.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $183,862$ on 2020-05-09

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $176,782$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,128.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,128.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,313$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,697.1}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25,697.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,321$ on 2020-05-09

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,921$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,270.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,270.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,350.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,350.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,730$ on 2020-05-09

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,581$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,867.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(42,867.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,441$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(530 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,402.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,402.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,991$ on 2020-05-09

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,760$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,385.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,385.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,446$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(60 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,554.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,554.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,204$ on 2020-05-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 92%
Austria recovered 86%
Switzerland recovered 86%
Malta recovered 84%
Germany recovered 72%
Croatia recovered 71%
Andorra recovered 68%
North Macedonia recovered 57%
Denmark recovered 56%
Slovakia recovered 50%
Lithuania recovered 46%
Spain recovered 38%
Czechia recovered 38%
Italy recovered 22%
Serbia recovered 9%
Hungary recovered 7%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(396 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-09

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,877$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(697 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,726.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,726.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(16.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 26.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-05-09

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,833$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,212.9}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,212.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $615$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(81.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{616.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(616.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,290$ on 2020-05-09

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,251$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,433.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,433.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(196 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,818.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,818.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,021$ on 2020-05-09